MacroGaps Data Room

MACROGAPS

Public macro, bond and Treasury-market series, pulled on each release date and mapped to the history of the markets.

Stand on the edge or fall into the macro gaps most investors miss.

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Change on the week. Sign and arrow carry direction; color does not.

Why this place exists

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Treasury auctions · who took the award

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Ledger · last eight coupon auctions

The last eight Treasury coupon auctions with size, high yield, bid-to-cover and the competitive award by bidder class
DATESECURITYSIZEHIGH YIELDBID-TO-COVERDEALER %INDIRECT %DIRECT %

Release calendar

The week ahead

    Times ET. * estimated from the agency's usual schedule.

    Event register

      Treasury buybacks · latest operations

        Offer-to-max = par offered ÷ maximum purchase.

        Watch · primary sources

        Latest from the Fed, Treasury and the SEC

          Explore the gaps on your own, or jump in below for guidance.

          Pick series, or start from a comparison. Series with different units go in separate panels on one shared date axis; switch to z-score or index to put them on one axis. Drag across a panel to zoom; click a date to see every plotted value and the events around it.

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          Values on a date

          Click anywhere on the chart to pin a date.

          Events within 10 days

          The register's events near the pinned date appear here.

          Watch

          What the data room is watching: items not yet dated, the forward calendar, and primary-source releases from the Fed, Treasury and the SEC.

          Watching, not yet dated

          Forward calendar

          FOMC decisions and minutes, the refunding cycle, auctions Treasury has announced, the major data releases, and scheduled rule dates. Each row says where its date comes from.

          From the Fed, Treasury and the SEC

          Press releases, monetary-policy releases, speeches and testimony, and FEDS Notes, pulled from the agencies' own feeds on every run and kept when they touch rates, reserves, payment accounts, tokenization, Treasury market structure or bank capital.

          Indicators

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          Release calendar

          The scheduler reruns each pull on these dates. Agency calendar dates come from BEA, Census, the Federal Reserve and TreasuryDirect directly; with a FRED key set, BLS and Board dates come from the FRED release calendar; the rest are computed from each release's usual schedule and marked as estimates.

          Treasury auctions

          Nominal coupon auctions since January 2025 from TreasuryDirect. Shares are computed from amounts on a competitive-accepted basis. Rows marked red set a record low dealer share for the tenor since 2008.

          Treasury buybacks

          Every operation since July 2025 from Fiscal Data. Offer-to-max is par offered over the operation's maximum; below 1.0 an operation cannot fill. Rows inside the review window (9 September to 4 November 2026) are marked. The lecture set in Buybacks Explainer covers the mechanism.

          Macro board

          Latest and prior are the two most recent prints in the form each agency headlines. Each row links to its source and shows when it was pulled and the hash of the file pulled.

          Event register

          This register was built to exacting empirical standards, and it grows every day as new events are added.

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          Lineage

          Recent pulls

          How a number gets here

          1. The scheduler wakes on weekdays at 08:45, 10:15, 12:15, 14:15, 16:45 and 18:00 ET and asks which releases have printed since each series' last pull.
          2. Only those series are pulled. A failed pull keeps the last good value and is logged; three failures open an issue.
          3. New or revised values are appended to the store with the pull id. Derived series (spreads, real rates, the Taylor rule, the tariff rate) are recomputed from stored levels.
          4. The next-print projection is rerun for any series that printed, and the previous projection is scored against the actual.
          5. The release calendar is rebuilt, the static JSON is exported, the denylist test runs, and the site deploys.

          Research · behind a password

          Papers, notes and the library sit behind one door.

          Working paper · v3 · 12 pp.

          Capacity Without Participation

          Primary dealer positions and auction shares after the April 2026 leverage recalibration.

          Working paper · 40 pp. · SSRN pending

          When Primary Dealer Shares Fall

          What the allocation of the competitive award measures, and what it does not.

          Replication

          Scripts, data and lineage

          Gated scripts, derived data, a lineage map and a change list for the companion paper.

          E-news

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